Athens
and Columbia are the battlefields this week
By
Jeff Sallas
Some of the
final pieces to the puzzle will be put in place this week. Either we will be one step closer to the SEC
title participants being set or we could have utter chaos. If Florida wins then the showdown with
Tennessee for the SEC East is set. If
South Carolina wins, we have chaos. It
could send the SEC East to end with a 3-way or 4-way tie. In the West, if Auburn wins they are one
home win against Bama away from repeating as SEC West champs. If Georgia wins, we have chaos. Ole Miss and LSU are back in it and LSU
still gets a shot at Auburn at home.
Let’s just say that Ole Miss and LSU fans are BIG Georgia fans this
week. A lot of ifs and it really sets
up an interesting weekend. Well I went
3-3 last week missing Tennessee, LSU and Arkansas. That puts me at 44-17 (72%) for the season. Here are the picks for this week...
Auburn at
Georgia - The game of the week (Saturday at 2:30 CDT on CBS)
Statistically
and age-wise this is arguably the best long-running rivalry in the SEC. I don’t know of any series that has been
closer through the years. Auburn is
currently ahead 50-46-8 but Georgia has scored 1 more point. It doesn’t get much closer than that. Another thing that has been good about this
series is both teams have been pretty good though the years. This year is no different as both teams come
in ranked and the game has major SEC title and bowl implications. This will be Georgia head coach Mark Richt’s
first game in the series and I think it is a big game for him.
The “road
team jinx” is always the popular theme discussing this series. Georgia has not beaten Auburn at home since
1991 and the last win before that was 1981.
They have won at Auburn regularly but for some reason the road team just
has the most success in this series.
However Auburn broke through and won at home last year in OT. There will be a lot of pressure for Richt
and Georgia to do it this year. Jim
Donnan never beat Auburn at home. In
fact Auburn has ambushed the Dawgs the last 2 times they have played in
Athens. Georgia was the favorite in
both games but Auburn won 38-21 and 45-34.
I think
Auburn will have a much tougher time sneaking up on the Dawgs this time. After the last 2 debacles you would think
that Georgia would be ready this time.
I think Richt has done a spectacular job so far. Georgia has been a very opportunistic team. They grabbed a win against a very good UT
team and have only lost to Florida and South Carolina. The South Carolina loss was at home but very
early in the season. I think Georgia
has improved a lot on offense since that game.
QB David Greene has gotten a lot better and freshman WR Fred Gibson has
become a superstar in the last month.
Georgia also has veteran WR Terrence Edwards and top-notch TB Musa Smith
as well.
The Auburn
defense is just a mystery. They have
been good at times but mediocre or bad the rest of the time. They played an incredible game against
Florida but have not been near that the rest of the season. They were awful their last time out against
Arkansas and were shredded in their other loss to Syracuse. They just did hang on in wins over Ole Miss,
Vandy and La Tech. They are young and
very inconsistent but also can be very good.
There is a lot of talent but not a whole lot of leadership. I think the Auburn defense will have their
hands full with the Georgia offense. It
should be a great battle to watch.
Meanwhile the
Georgia defense has big problems. They
have a slew of injuries on the defensive line that are so bad that they are
considering changing defensive alignments from a 4-3 to a 3-4. Also the Georgia defense wasn’t too good
before the injuries. They are
definitely closer to the bottom in most of the defensive statistics in the
conference. They have given up a lot of
yards to Tennessee, Kentucky and Florida but like Richt says they have given
the team a chance to win. On the other
side of the ball Auburn has problems as well.
They don’t have any significant injuries and seem to have talent but the
coaches just can’t seem to bring it out.
In Auburn’s
previous road games this year they have scored an average of 18 points. I don’t think that will be close to good
enough this weekend. Over the entire
year Auburn has only averaged 21 points in conference play. One of the problems is inconsistent play at
QB where the Tigers have settled on senior Daniel Cobb after freshman Jason
Campbell started the first 7 games of the season. However Auburn coaches might bring him in relief if things go
bad. The lone bright spot for the
Tigers on offense has been the emergence of super freshman Carnell “Cadillac”
Williams. The most highly recruited RB
in the south this year started slow but rolled up 155 yards on 17 carries
against Arkansas. He will start against
Georgia. With Williams coming on and
running behind a senior OL against a depleted Georgia defensive line I think
you will see a conservative ground oriented attack from Auburn. The coaches have already been hinting at
this.
Man this is a
tough pick. There are a lot of factors
that favor each team. Georgia is a
whopping 8 point favorite and that favors Auburn who loves playing the
underdog. However Georgia is an
explosive offensive team that has to win this game at home sometime. I have already changed my mind several times
on this game already this week. Both
teams are good and evenly matched but Auburn always seems to get this one when
it counts...
AUBURN OVER
GEORGIA
Florida
at South Carolina (Saturday at 6:30 CDT on ESPN)
The Gators go
into enemy territory again this week.
Both teams had easy games last week as South Carolina beat Wofford and
Florida retired Woody Widenhofer. This
game matches up just like everybody says, the high-powered “Fun n’ Gun” Florida
offense vs. the ball-control “old school” Lou Holtz philosophy. It is easy to dismiss this game as another
Florida romp but Holtz always seems to find a way to stay in these games. Last year South Carolina blocked 2 punts to
get ahead of Florida so special teams could play a big factor. The weather is always a concern for
Florida’s precision offense but the forecast looks beautiful for Columbia.
The feature
matchup of the game is of course Florida’s offense vs. the South Carolina
defense. South Carolina has one of the
top defenses in the conference so it won’t be a cakewalk for Florida. However they are just so explosive and after
getting a wake-up call at Auburn I doubt they will come in over-confident. I look for Florida to look pretty sharp but
expect the South Carolina defense to keep it close for awhile. However unless the offense can put some
points on the board and put pressure on Florida the Gators will blow it open
sooner or later.
The South
Carolina offense has been steady but unspectacular. They will have to play their best game of the year to beat
Florida. Against everyone but Bama,
Vandy and Kentucky South Carolina has scored: 14 points vs. Georgia, 16 points
vs. State, 10 points vs. Arkansas and 10 points vs. Tennessee. That is just not going to get it done. Florida’s defense is as good as all those
teams except maybe Tennessee. Auburn
beat Florida with 23 points but both teams were handicapped by strong swirling
winds that night. South Carolina must
get at least 30 points to beat Florida I think. I just don’t think they can do it. This is where you learn why “old school” has become old. None of these type coaches have had any
success against Steve Spurrier. The
Gators have lost a few but won a lot more.
I think they get another one on Saturday.
FLORIDA OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA
Miss St
at Bama (Saturday at 11:30 CDT on Jefferson Pilot)
Surprisingly
this game matches up the bottom of the Western division. Both teams have not performed anywhere close
to most preseason predictions. Bama
comes in at 3-5 (2-4 in the SEC) and State comes in at 2-5 (1-4 in the
SEC). Bama has had a little bit better
season but comes in on a down note after last week’s defensive debacle against
LSU. State has had an awful season but
comes in after their first conference win over Kentucky. While it doesn’t add up to an intriguing
matchup, this game is pretty important to the participants. The popular thing to do by the media is
compare Bama’s season with last year’s season and so far it adds up the
same. Therefore a lot of the talk is
about not letting this year end like the last.
Meanwhile State is just looking for something positive to build on and a
win at Bama could be that.
State has
already found something to build on at the QB position. Sophomore QB Kevin Fant relieved beleaguered
senior Wayne Madkin last week and led the team to the victory over
Kentucky. Jackie Sherill has gone out
of his way to say he will not disrespect Wayne Madkin who has been an integral
part of State’s success since 1998.
However I think the man at QB after last week is Fant. He is a better drop-back passer and since
Bama was so bad against the pass last week you would think he would be the man
this week. Unfortunately for State it
really doesn’t matter whether they go land or air, they just haven’t been able
to put the ball in the end zone. State
is now the lowest scoring team in division 1-A. That should bode well for the Bama defense. I think they will be much better this week
simply because State is not near as good on offense as LSU. I would imagine Bama’s defensive plan would
center around stopping State’s best playmaker, Dicenzo Miller.
On the other
side of the ball I think Bama needs to make some changes as well. The offense wasn’t the problem last week but
it could have been better. The first
problem in my opinion is Tyler Watts is what in basketball they call a
“hogball”. I know the QB runs a lot
more in the option. I know the
defensive reaction has a lot of to do with who gets to run the ball in the
option and I am not a football coach.
However I have watched some very good option teams over the years and a
good option team still gets the ball the majority of the time to the RBs. They are the best at running the ball, that
is why they are at that position. Look
at Nebraska in the 90s, Bo Jackson his first 2 years at Auburn, etc... Last week Watts ran the ball 21 times and
Galloway and Beard combined for 16 carries.
That is ridiculous. Tyler Watts
is a decent runner but those 2 guys are much better, get them the ball!!!
I will be
interested to see how State plays defense this week. Joe Lee Dunn is still one of the best and State’s defense while
it has been less than dominating is still a pretty good unit statistically. I think this one will be close for awhile
but I think Bama’s hulking offensive line will wear down State. I don’t think State has the good passing
offense to force Bama into another 4th quarter meltdown. A tough hard fought game but I will take...
BAMA OVER
MISS ST
Kentucky
at Vanderbilt (Saturday at 1:00 CDT)
Yes!!! The long awaited “clash of the
titans”!!! Forget UT and Florida, this
is the game! Neither team has won an
SEC game in 2 years other than Vandy beating Kentucky last year. Of course 2 years ago Vandy blew their only
chance at a winning season and a bowl berth in like 20 years losing to Kentucky
at home. As I am writing this Woody
Widenhofer has resigned at Vandy so put another gravestone up in the large cemetery
of Vandy coaches. However it just adds
more drama to this game. Who will go
winless in the SEC this year? Will UK
make it 2 years in a row? Or will Vandy
recapture the title again? Kentucky
almost ruined everything last week at Miss St but State rallied and set up this
titanic showdown. There is no doubt,
these teams are both very bad. However
I think I give Kentucky a slight edge on both sides of the ball, they are a
little worse, although it is almost too close to call. Tough pick but I think the Commodores will
“win one for Woody”...
VANDERBILT
OVER KENTUCKY
Memphis
at Tennessee (Saturday at 1:00 CDT)
The Vols
return home after a brutal stretch.
Things do get easier the next 3 games before Florida however it is
possible this game could be tougher than the next 2 against Kentucky and
Vandy. Memphis is a decent team, they
come in at 4-4 and of course they have the $200,000 man in Albert Means. They are a pretty balanced team averaging
about 150 on the ground and through the air.
I would talk about a Vol letdown but I did that last week and the Vols
took care of business. I think this
team is dialed in now and really starting to come together. The UT offense struggled a bit last week but
still came through against a pretty tough Notre Dame defense. I look for much better numbers this
week. This one might not be pretty but
I think it will put UT one more step closer toward a BCS berth...
TENNESSEE
OVER MEMPHIS
Central
Florida at Arkansas (Saturday at 1:00
CDT)
Now this is a
tough pick. Central Florida is as usual
one of the more dangerous “lesser” teams to play. They beat Bama last year and could have beaten Auburn in 98 and
99. Arkansas is on a roll though. They have now rolled through 3 straight
ranked conference teams in a row. You
also have to look at coach Houston Nutt’s incredible home record. However a game like last week with 7 OT
periods has got to take something out of a team. Arkansas has picked it up on offense but still hasn’t quite hit
the powerhouse status yet. You really
can’t get much out of the stats from last week since they are so skewed by the
OT periods. I am tempted to pick the
upset here but Arkansas is battling for a bowl bid and Central Florida doesn’t
look quite as good as they have been the last few years.
ARKANSAS OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA
Middle
Tenn St at LSU (Saturday at 7:00 CDT)
The Tigers
return home this week to prepare for their last 2 SEC games against Arkansas
and Auburn. If I was an LSU coach I
would get the team up for this one because they have a lot of off time coming
up. They have a week off before
Arkansas and then another week off after.
MTSU is a good team as has been discussed all year. They are capable of beating just about any
SEC team in the West. However LSU
should still be riding the wave they were on in the Bama game plus head coach
Nick Saban still has last year’s UAB debacle to point to. I think we see more Davey-to-Reed
(especially if it gets close) and I think Saban will work on the running game
quite a bit. LSU has been known to be
flat after big wins but I will go ahead and say...
LSU OVER MTSU